The Federal Government on Wednesday recorded a major breakthrough in its efforts to curb inflation to 15 per cent, as new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 18.02 per cent in September 2025 from 19.12 per cent in August, The PUNCH reports.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the NBS, the moderation was primarily driven by stronger food supply, exchange rate stability, and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tighter monetary policy stance.

The decline represents the sixth consecutive monthly drop since April and marks the first time in three years that inflation has fallen below the 20 per cent mark.

The NBS report stated, “In September 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 18.02 per cent relative to the August 2025 headline inflation rate of 20.12 per cent. Looking at the movement, the September 2025 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 2.1 per cent compared to the August 2025 Headline inflation rate.”

It further noted that on a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 14.68 per cent lower than the 32.70 per cent recorded in September 2024. The agency explained that the year-on-year decline was calculated using the revised base year of November 2009 = 100.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at 0.72 per cent in September 2025, representing a slight reduction of 0.02 percentage points from 0.74 per cent in August. This, according to the NBS, indicates that price increases in September occurred at a slower pace than the previous month, suggesting a gradual easing of inflationary pressures across the economy.

The report added, “The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending September 2025 over the average for the previous twelve-month period was 23.46 per cent, showing an 8.27 per cent decrease compared to 31.73 per cent recorded in September 2024.”

In his New Year address, President Bola Tinubu pledged to stabilise prices and strengthen the economy in 2025 by boosting food production and reducing inflation to 15 per cent.

At that time, inflation had climbed to a two-decade high of 34.8 per cent in December 2024 due to food price spikes, foreign exchange volatility, and high energy costs. However, a rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product alongside fiscal and monetary interventions has since supported more favourable economic indicators.

President Tinubu had earlier highlighted “lower fuel prices, rising foreign reserves, and a stronger naira” as evidence of increasing economic stability.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, attributed recent improvements to enhanced national security that boosted agricultural productivity and increased oil output.

Although some analysts questioned the feasibility of achieving the 15 per cent target, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, expressed confidence in the 2025 inflation trajectory.

He stated, “I hear people say 15 per cent inflation is not possible, but I disagree. If 2025 is as challenging as 2024, inflation will nominally drop to 25 per cent due to the base effect. However, I believe the reforms in place will limit key inflationary factors, paving the way for even lower rates.”

The NBS also reported that food inflation dropped to 16.87 per cent year-on-year in September 2025, 20.9 percentage points lower than the 37.77 per cent recorded in September 2024. The decline was linked to lower prices of staple items such as maize, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in September 2025 was -1.57 per cent, down by 3.22 per cent compared to August 2025 (1.65 per cent),” the report said. “The decrease can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of Maize (Corn) Grains, Garri, Beans, Millet, Potatoes, Onions, Eggs, Tomatoes, Fresh Pepper, etc.”

State-level data showed that food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Ekiti (28.68 per cent), Rivers (24.18 per cent), and Nasarawa (22.74 per cent). Meanwhile, Bauchi (2.81 per cent), Niger (8.38 per cent), and Anambra (8.41 per cent) experienced the slowest rise, indicating relative price stability.

Month-on-month, Zamfara (15.62 per cent), Ekiti (12.77 per cent), and Sokoto (12.55 per cent) recorded the sharpest short-term increases, while Akwa Ibom (-12.97 per cent), Borno (-12.95 per cent), and Cross River (-10.36 per cent) posted declines, suggesting falling food prices in those regions.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) commended the sustained moderation in inflation, calling it evidence of improving macroeconomic conditions and effective policy coordination.

Its Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, said, “The latest figures show that inflationary pressures are gradually subsiding. Headline inflation has eased, food inflation has dropped sharply, and core inflation is also moderating. These are encouraging signs that policy reforms are taking hold.”

Yusuf, however, cautioned that despite the decline, inflation levels remain elevated and continue to undermine consumer welfare. “We must consolidate the gains achieved so far through decisive and well-targeted policy actions,” he advised.

He attributed the disinflation trend to factors such as improved agricultural output during the harvest season, greater exchange rate stability, and tighter monetary control.

“The naira has experienced some stability and even mild appreciation in recent months. When combined with better coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, it has helped moderate imported inflation,” Yusuf said.

Still, he noted that high prices in sectors like food, transport, energy, housing, and healthcare—responsible for nearly 90 per cent of household expenditure—remain a challenge. “High fuel costs, poor road networks, and multiple levies across states continue to inflate logistics expenses. Insecurity in farming areas and climate disruptions also keep food prices elevated,” he added.

To sustain the momentum, CPPE urged the government to enhance agricultural productivity, secure farming areas, repair major transport routes, and expand off-grid energy access. It also called for improved access to affordable credit and comprehensive port reforms to reduce trade costs.

Yusuf concluded, “The next phase of reform must prioritise welfare-focused measures that deliver tangible relief to citizens. While business confidence is rising, consumer confidence remains fragile. Policies that reduce the cost of living will deepen this progress.”

He further expressed optimism that with consistency and structural reforms, Nigeria could reach single-digit inflation over the medium term, which would “anchor growth, improve welfare, and restore confidence in the economy.”

Similarly, the Managing Director and CEO of Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, Olatunde Amolegbe, noted that the slowdown reflects lower food and energy prices but warned that structural bottlenecks remain.

He said, “The disinflation was mainly due to relatively lower food prices and steady energy prices. Of course, the structural challenges, such as poor infrastructure and insecurity, are still with us and may take time to address. But it is encouraging that we’re beginning to see a slowdown in price increases.

“With time, as the exchange rate strengthens and interest rates begin to ease, we should start to see actual price declines. I expect this disinflation trend to persist in the short to medium term,” he added.