Nigeria is reassessing competition in its telecommunications sector amid slowing global growth and the expanding influence of over-the-top (OTT) platforms that continue to erode traditional voice and messaging revenues.
The review comes against the backdrop of a global telecommunications market projected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2028, even as annual growth remains below pre-pandemic levels.
To this end, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has engaged PwC to conduct an independent, data-driven study, the first comprehensive review of the sector in over a decade, examining market concentration, pricing behaviour, barriers to entry, consumer switching patterns, and monetisation opportunities using internationally recognised metrics.
Omotayo Mohammed, head of policy, competition and economic analysis at the NCC, at a stakeholders’ forum in Lagos on Tuesday, emphasised that the study aims to ensure competition stays fair, effective, and sustainable amid rapid technological shifts.
“This exercise is not about naming winners or losers. It is about strengthening regulatory certainty and ensuring that competition-led growth continues to deliver innovation, affordability, and quality of service to consumers,” Mohammed said.
The PwC-led assessment will draw on extensive data collection from operators (with a two-week submission window), stakeholder interviews, and follow-up workshops, all protected by strict confidentiality safeguards.
Findings are expected to inform proportionate regulatory interventions to preserve competition, sustain investment, and bolster Nigeria’s position in the global digital economy.
Akolawole Odunlami, director of strategy at the PwC Network, highlighted broader pressures facing the industry, stating, the global telecom market is projected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2028, but annual growth has slowed to two percent to three percent from pre-pandemic levels of around four percent.
“Those pressures are being felt across markets, not just in Nigeria,” Odunlami said.
In sub-Saharan Africa, subscriber numbers keep rising, yet average revenue per user (ARPU) is declining due to intense price competition, rising costs, and shifting consumer behaviour.
“The African story is paradoxical. Subscriber numbers are rising, but revenue per user is falling.”Today’s digital-first consumers demand experiences powered by connectivity, self-service apps, entertainment, social media, payments, and collaboration, rather than standalone services. OTT platforms like WhatsApp and Teams have shifted revenue from traditional models to data-centric digital offerings,” Odunlami noted.
Connectivity is no longer the product. The product is the experience powered by connectivity,” Odunlami affirmed.
In response, global operators are integrating lifestyle and fintech services into their platforms to capture more value.
Meanwhile, 5G adoption lags. While it is expected to account for 64 percent of global connectivity by 2028, Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa are projected at just 14 percent to 17 percent in the short to medium term, constrained by infrastructure gaps, slow device uptake, and limited R&D investment.
“Government’s role is not just regulation. It must also support infrastructure development and R&D to unlock next-generation connectivity,” Odunlami stated.
Odunlami stressed the study’s diagnostic nature, adding that, “This is not punitive. It is about understanding how market leadership is achieved and exercised.”
Dominance can stem from innovation, investment, and strategy, or from anti-competitive practices, which regulators aim to address while encouraging sustainable leadership, he added.